When the FA Cup draw paired Leeds United with Millwall at Elland Road, most fans pictured the Championship frontrunners cruising through. Yet BBC pundit Chris Sutton has taken the opposite route, insisting the Lions will shock the Lions of Elland Road with a 2-1 win.
Why rotation could tip the balance
Sutton’s logic hinges on the timing. Leeds sit five points clear at the top of the Championship after a win over Coventry, but four clubs are still in the hunt for the two automatic promotion spots. The financial reward for reaching the Premier League – and the danger of missing out – makes the league a priority. "They are five points clear, but promotion is their priority," Sutton said, noting manager Daniel Farke will likely shuffle the squad to keep key players fresh for the next league game against Watford on Tuesday.
That reshuffle, according to Sutton, means a weakened Leeds side will lack the cohesion that helped them go unbeaten in their last 18 games across all competitions. While Sutton admits he isn’t a fan of heavy rotation, he understands the pressure on a manager who must balance a cup run with a promotion campaign.
Millwall’s momentum and the psychological edge
On the other side of the pitch, Alex Neil’s Millwall have ridden a three‑game winning streak that thrust them into the fringe of the play‑off race. Sutton praises Neil as "a pretty shrewd manager" who has gotten the best out of a squad that has already tasted victory over Leeds – a 1‑0 win at The Den in November.
The November triumph was Leeds’ sole loss in a stretch of 18 matches, underscoring how rare a defeat has become for the Yorkshire side. Sutton believes that rarity could work in Millwall’s favor this Saturday. "I had to think quite a lot about this one, but I am going to go with Millwall to cause an upset," he said, pointing to the expected Leeds rotation as the main catalyst.
Neil’s game plan, as Sutton predicts, will involve fielding his strongest available XI. The Lions have shown they can grind out wins against higher‑ranked opposition, and the confidence from three straight league victories should translate into a disciplined cup performance.
Both managers share a Norwich City pedigree – Farke and Neil each spent time in charge of the Canaries – and that connection adds a subtle narrative layer to the tie. However, Sutton asserts that Neil’s recent form and his willingness to stick with a settled lineup give Millwall a distinct edge.
Financially, the stakes are starkly different. For Leeds, promotion could bring a windfall of over £150 million, while a loss in the cup merely dents morale. Millwall, meanwhile, stands to gain a lucrative cash injection and the prestige of eliminating a top‑flight hopeful.
Fans of both clubs will be watching closely on Saturday afternoon. If Sutton’s prediction holds, Millwall will not only advance to the FA Cup fifth round but also send a clear message: even the league leaders can be vulnerable when they juggle priorities.
Regardless of the outcome, the tie epitomises the magic of the FA Cup – a competition where a single day can rewrite narratives, shift momentum, and remind everyone why ‘giant‑killing’ remains a beloved part of English football lore.
